The global economy is predicted to have a rough 2017, with growth rates in many countries slowing down. But what’s the outlook like in 2022? In order to predict that, it’s important to look at the factors that led to world economic growth in the past, and see how those factors have changed or might change in the future.
The world economy is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This would be a significant increase from the 2.5 percent growth forecast for 2021. Several factors are expected to contribute to this growth, including an increase in trade, higher investment levels, and continued low-interest rates. Additionally, many countries are expected to see their economies rebound from the pandemic-induced recession in 2021. With all of these factors working in favor of global economic growth, it’s looking like 2022 could be a very good year for the world economy.
In recent years, China has been an increasingly important player in the global economy. And that trend is expected to continue in 2022. Why? For one, China’s population is projected to reach 1.4 billion by 2022, making it an increasingly important consumer market. Additionally, China’s middle class is growing rapidly and is expected to surpass 500 million people by 2022. This growing middle class has more disposable income than ever before and is driving spending in sectors like retail, travel, and luxury goods. Additionally, China’s infrastructure investment continues to grow at a rapid pace. All of these factors are contributing to China’s role as a driver of global economic growth.
The United States is projected to have a real GDP growth rate of 3.3% in 2022, up from an estimated 2.4% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Several factors will contribute to this increase, including higher government spending, rising consumer confidence, and low-interest rates. These trends will help offset any drag from slowing business investment and declining exports. So, keep an eye on these key indicators as we head into next year – they could be signs that the global economy is finally on the upswing.
As we move into 2021, the world is keeping a close eye on Canada. After all, our country is one of the few that seems to be weathering the COVID-19 pandemic relatively well. With a strong vaccine rollout underway and our economy beginning to reopen, there’s reason to believe that Canada could lead the charge in global economic growth in 2022. Here are a few key factors to watch out for this year as they relate to Canadian economic growth:
1) Will the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) repeal come back to bite us?
2) Is COVID-19 slowing down worldwide trade too much?
3) What does an increase in China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) mean for Canadians?
4) How will the United States react if Canada continues to outperform its southern neighbor economically?
5) Will our strong banking system shield us from global volatility going forward?
- India’s population is projected to surpass China’s in 2027, making it the world’s most populous country. This growing population will provide a large consumer base for businesses.
- India’s economy is expected to overtake the United Kingdom’s in 2028 and France’s in 2030, making it the world’s third-largest economy.
- India has a young population, with 65% of the population under the age of 35. This provides a large workforce to drive economic growth.
- India has a growing middle class, which is projected to reach over 50% of the population by 2030. This expanding consumer base will spur businesses to grow and invest in India.
5 India has strong democratic institutions and a thriving civil society.
- Watch China’s GDP growth: In 2020, China’s economy is expected to grow by 1.9 percent, making it the only major economy to see positive growth this year. This is thanks to the country’s strong recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. In 2021, China is expected to grow by 8.5 percent, and in 2022 by 5.5 percent.
- Keep an eye on commodity prices: Commodity prices have recovered from their lows in 2020 and are expected to continue rising in 2021 and 2022. This will be driven by growing demand from China as well as other emerging economies such as India and Brazil.
In 2022, Brazil is projected to be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. This is due in large part to the country’s rich natural resources, which include oil, gas, iron ore, and timber. Additionally, Brazil has a large and growing population that is becoming increasingly urbanized and affluent. These factors will continue to drive economic growth in Brazil in the years to come.
- Italy’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.5% in 2022, driven by strong exports and private consumption.
- Manufacturing and construction will be the main drivers of growth, while the service sector is expected to lag behind.
- The country’s strong export performance is expected to continue, thanks to demand from the US and Asia.
- Italy’s public finances are in good shape, with a budget surplus expected in 2022.
- Political stability is also forecast, with no major elections scheduled until 2023.
- All in all, these factors point to a positive outlook for Italy’s economy in 2022.
- Russia’s return to global oil markets. In 2020, Russia shocked the world by pulling out of OPEC, a move that sent oil prices plummeting. But in 2022, Russia will be back and ready to compete with the likes of Saudi Arabia and the United States. This could lead to higher oil prices and an increase in Russian exports.
- The Winter Olympics in Beijing. Russia is one of the leading countries in winter sports, so the Winter Olympics in Beijing will be a major event for the country. With over 200 athletes expected to compete, Russia is looking to bring home a haul of medals. This could give a boost to the economy as well as national pride.
3 Putin’s continued consolidation of power.